
Expected Completion Date of PhD:
May 2021
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Major Fields:
Applied Macroeconomics, Economic Growth and Distribution and
U.S. Political Economy.
Dissertation Title:
A Sectoral Approach to Measuring US Growth,
Inequality and Output Gap.
Profile:
My dissertation consists of three essays on measurement of
US growth, inequality, and output gap from a sectoral perspective.
In my first essay, I argue that rapidly growing financial,
healthcare, and professional-business services are a means to the end of
economic welfare, and, therefore, they are better treated as intermediate
consumption of households. I adjust real output growth by using the
Input-Output data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis over 1947-2017, and find a
deeper slowdown in growth post-1973, particularly after 2000, than the
conventional GDP.
My second essay estimates the impact of adjustments on
income distribution from 1985 to 2015. By using consumer expenditure survey
data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I find that labor income finances more
than 90% of the US household expenditures on finance, healthcare and
professional-business services. The adjusted labor share, defined as the
compensation of employees over GDP, declines more than the conventional labor
share over 1985-2015.
In my final essay, I shift from sectoral sources of actual
GDP to potential GDP, and estimate output gaps of 20 US industries over
1948-2019 by using Bayesian statistical inference. I find a generally negative
output gap at the aggregate except for the second half of the 1960s, and a
persistent excess-capacity since 1990. My findings show that secular stagnation
is not an inevitable feature of the US economy, and it can be avoided by
eliminating the chronic output gap through demand supporting policies.
Contact Email:
tercr677@newschool.edu